MARKET MUSINGS

Market out look 4-1-10 to 8-1-10

2010-01-03T19:47:00.000+05:30

OM NAMO BHAGAVTHE SREE RAMAKRISHNAYA

MARKET OUT LOOK 04-01-2010

Nifty closed at 5210.05 on 24th December 2009, the last trading day of the previous trading week, there by gaining 22.65 points or 0.44% over previous week close. Let us watch the nifty movement

date open high low close

12/24/2009 5144.80 5197.90 5129.05 5178.40

12/29/2009 5180.75 5214.60 5175.85 5187.95

12/30/2009 5188.75 5197.05 5160.10 5169.45 close %

12/31/2009 5171.20 5221.85 5168.75 5201.05 22.65 0.44

In my previous week write up I opined that “Based on the above I am of the opinion that Nifty is likely to see some correction in days to come.”

Nifty posted gains on first trading day, lost ground on second trading day and posted gains on last trading day, there by posted gains week on week basis. My assumption was proved wrong and Nifty did not undergo correction as expected by me.

Let us examine the Nifty chart to make an assessment of what is likely to be the next week action.

The Nifty touched the upper band of Bolinger and started the downward journey on 30-12-2009. The chande momentum oscillator is sloping down but did not cross it’s 9 days moving average. Nifty also touched the upper band of projection band, and started the downward journey to lower band. R squared is turning up from lower levels and the present reading is 0.15 well below the critical value showing that the present uptrend is not statistically siginificant.

Based on the above I am of the opinion that the correction phase of the Nifty is not yet over and the probable targets are likely to be 4963 being bolinger lower band reading as of now, 4985 being projection band lower band reading as of now.

Regards

Subrahmanyam

2009-12-25T16:40:00.000+05:30

Market Out Look 26-12-09

2009-12-25T16:38:00.000+05:30

OM NAME BHAGAVATHE SREE RAMAKRISHNAYA

MARKET OUT LOOK ( NIFTY 28-12-09 TO 1-1-10)

The nifty ended at 5129.05 on 24th December 2009 for the trading week. The gains posted by Nifty were 190.70 points or 3.82% over previous trading week. In my last week write up I opined that “Based on the above I am of the opinion that Nifty is likely to find support around 4968-4954 and after under going some relief rally the down ward journey again is likely to continue in days to come”

Let us examine the movement of Nifty

Date Open High Low Close

12/18/2009 5042.00 5043.40 4979.05 4987.70

12/21/2009 4983.65 4997.85 4943.95 4952.60

12/22/2009 4953.35 4997.30 4953.35 4985.85

12/23/2009 4990.05 5150.60 4990.05 5144.60 Change %

12/24/2009 5144.80 5197.90 5129.05 5178.40 190.70 3.82

Nifty touched a low of 4943.95 on 21-12-09 and later bounced back to 5197.90 on 24-12-09. In the chart I have sent (hope at least some of you have opened and seen it) I mentioned targets of 5089.00 and 5191.51 both of which were met. Now the first part of the opinion has materialized. Now let us examine with the help of technical analysis, what will be the likely behavior of Nifty in days to come.

Let us examine the Nifty chart (chart 1)

Nifty on the opening day of trading week opened low and closed low. Last three trading days, Nifty traded higher and closed in positive territory and posted smart gains. The range on last trading was narrow.

The move started at the lower Bolinger Band reached the upper band, as is evident from the chart(1), and Chande Momentum index crossed it’s 9 day’s moving average from below and trading above it.

Let us examine the Nifty chart with R-squared(chart2). The Nifty touched the upper band of projection bands and Rsquared is falling down. The present value of Rsquared is .05 and critical value is 0.27,which shows that the uptrend is not strong enough.

The Chande momentum oscillator turned up without reaching the over sold area.

Let us examine the Nifty Envelops chart, the lower band of envelops is yet to be touched by Nifty.

Based on the above I am of the opinion that Nifty is likely to see some correction in days to come.

Regards

Subrahmanyam

Spot Nifty

2009-12-22T18:41:00.000+05:30

Market Out Look 20-12-09

2009-12-20T20:31:00.000+05:30

OM NAMO BHAGAVATHE SREE RAMAKRISHNAYA

The Nifty closed at 129.60 points down compared to previous week close. Let us examine the Nifty movement

Date Open High Low Close

12/11/2009 5136.05 5182.55 5088.40 5117.30

12/14/2009 5117.45 5156.70 5090.15 5105.70

12/15/2009 5105.75 5129.45 5018.25 5033.05

12/16/2009 5032.95 5067.25 5001.80 5042.05

12/17/2009 5046.65 5064.20 5013.15 5041.75 Change %

12/18/2009 5042.00 5043.40 4979.05 4987.70 -129.60 -2.53

Will the nifty continue the downward journey? Will it make a come back ? Let us examine with the help of Technical Analysis.

Nifty traded lower on first two trading days of the previous week. On the Third trading day it posted small gains of 9 points and again resumed the downward journey on Fourth and fifty trading days of the previous week. On the last trading day it swung low and closed near the low of day. Nifty closed below the important support level of 5092.00 on 7th December 2009, there by gave indication about the forthcoming things. It again closed below that level again on 8th December 09 and on 15th December 09.

The Chande Momentum Oscillator almost touched the over bought area of 50 and started the downward journey from there and trading below the crucial 9 day moving average of indicator which is a bearish sign.

The Chande momentum is yet to reach the over sold area or cross it’s 9 days moving average. It failed to cross it’s moving average thrice during the period of its downward journey from over bought area.

The positive Vortex indicator is turning down and the negative vortex indicator is turning up, but yet to cross.

The Nifty is yet to touch the lower band of envelops, which is good over bought/ over sold oscillator, whose reading is at present at 4817.00.

Let us examine the Nifty chart with projection bands and R-squared

Nifty started it’s downward journey from projection bands and yet to touch the lower band. The present reading of lower band is at 4953.85. The R-squared is above it’s critical value of 0.27 ( 14 days) indicating the present trend is strong statistically.

The Nifty started the downward journey from upper band of Bolinger on 11th December 2009 and yet to touch the lower band whose value is placed at 4968.41 as of now. See the chart below.
Based on the above I am of the opinion that Nifty is likely to find support around 4968-4954 and after under going some relief rally the down ward journey again is likely to continue in days to come

Regards

Subrahmanyam

Nifty Intra day chart 17-12-09

2009-12-17T20:14:00.000+05:30

Nifty Intra day chart 19-11-09

2009-11-19T16:42:00.000+05:30

2009-11-18T16:31:00.003+05:30

Nifty Intra day chart(2) 12-11-09

2009-11-12T17:15:00.002+05:30

Nifty Intra day chart 12-11-09

2009-11-12T17:14:00.002+05:30

Nifty Intra day chart for 11-11-09

2009-11-11T17:09:00.000+05:30

Nifty Intra day chart with MML study 11-11-09

2009-11-11T17:07:00.002+05:30

Reliance Intra day chart

2009-11-10T09:53:00.002+05:30

Two more intra day charts

2009-11-10T09:23:00.000+05:30

Nifty intra day chart for 9-11-09

2009-11-09T19:46:00.000+05:30

Hello all

2009-10-13T23:29:00.001+05:30

Hello. How are you doing. I am sorry I could not post due to various reasons. My health was not well after that my system crashed etc etc. Now every thing set. Will post regularly from tomorrow( hopefully)
Regards
Subrahmanyam

New FnO call followup

2009-09-23T15:43:00.000+05:30

Balaralpur chini Near month futures ended 3.20 Rs or 2.61%. Touched a low of Rs 118.20 First Target met. Profit 10,080.00 Rs
Regards
Subrahmanyam

day's best for 23-9-09 followup

2009-09-23T15:41:00.000+05:30

Ploaris near month ended in negative by Rs 6.20 or 4.08% . Loss 17360. Call failed
Regards
Subrahmanyam

Days Best 23-9-09

2009-09-23T09:21:00.000+05:30

Buying opportunities are likley to exist in polaris near month futures Previous close 151.80 Market lot 2800
Regards
Subrahmanyam

New FnO Call

2009-09-23T09:19:00.000+05:30

Short Ballarampur Chini near month Previous close 122.40 Traget1 119.75 Traget2 114.00 Target3 112.00 Stop Loss 127.25
Reagards
Subrahmanyam

Day's best for 10-09-09 followup

2009-09-10T16:02:00.000+05:30

Sintex near month futures closed in negative, down by Rs 2.80 Over previosu close or 1.16% down. Profit Rs 3920.00 Call success
Regards
Subrahmanyam

Day's best for 10-09-2009

2009-09-09T19:33:00.000+05:30

Selling opportunities are likely to exist in Sintex near month futures. Previous close 240.80 Rs. Market lot 1400
Regards
Subrahmanyam

Days best 9-9-09 followup

2009-09-09T16:27:00.000+05:30

COPAL near month futures closed down by rs 2.80 or 0.45% than previous close. Profit of Rs 1540
Call success
Regards
Subrahmanyam

Days best for 9-9-09

2009-09-09T06:55:00.000+05:30

Selling opportunities are likley to exist in COLPAL near month futures. Previous close 622.80. Market lot 550.
Regards
Subrahmanyam

Grasim and Ultra Tech cem

2009-09-08T16:05:00.000+05:30

Ultra tech cement delivery based call completed First target of 769.00
Grasim completed delivery based call completed First target of 2726.00
Regards
Subrahmanyam

Day's best for 8-9-09

2009-09-08T16:01:00.000+05:30

Unitech near month futures closed in negative bt Rs 2.30 or 1.99% Loss of Rs 10350.00 Call failed
ZEEL near month futures closed in positive by Rs 1.00 or 0.46% Profit of Rs 1400.00 Call succeeded
Regards
Subrahmanyam

Days best for 8-9-09

2009-09-08T07:49:00.000+05:30

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in
Unitech Near Month futures, prev close 115.55 Market lot 4500
ZEEL near month futures Prev close 218.50 market lot 1400
Regards
Subrahmanyam

Hindustan Petrolium buy call

2009-09-07T16:01:00.000+05:30

Buy call on Hindustan Petrolium surpassed third target and did Rs 419.50 today, a close of 29.65 Rs or 7.66% over prev.
Subrahmanyam

Days best 7-9-09 followup

2009-09-07T15:59:00.000+05:30

Days best pick Ispat Industries near month futures buy call ended in positive, up by Rs 1.40 over previous close or 6.06%. Profit 17430.00 Rs
Regards
Subrahmanyam

NEW DELIVERY BASED CALL

2009-09-06T15:59:00.000+05:30

Grasim Previous close prev close 2678.60 target1 2726.00 target2 2754.00 target3 2785.00 stop loss 2585.00

Ultra tech Cemco prev close 751.85, target1 769.00 target2 782.00 target3 784.00 stoploss 784.00
Regards
Subrahmanyam

Days best for 7th sept 09

2009-09-06T15:37:00.000+05:30

Buying opportunities are likely to exist in Ispat Industries near month futures prev close 23.10 market lot 12450.
regards
subrahmanyam

Day's Best for 3-9-09 folowup

2009-09-03T16:06:00.000+05:30

GAIL near month futures closed up by Rs 12.95 or 3.74% Market lot 1125. Profit Rs 14568.75
Call Success.
Regards
Subrahmanyam

Hind Petro surpassed thrid target

2009-09-02T20:31:00.001+05:30

Hind Petro, delivery call given on 31-9-09 exceeded third target and did 393.30 Profit of Rs 39.05 per share
Subrahmanyam

Days best 3-6-09

2009-09-02T20:29:00.002+05:30

Buying Opportunity is likely to exist in Gail Near Month futures. Prev close 346.90, Market lot 1125
Subrahmanyam

Days best 2-9-09 followup

2009-09-02T20:28:00.000+05:30

Bel near month futures closed up y Rs 6.60 Rs or 0.48% close on close basis loss of Rs 1821.60 Ps Call failed
Subrahmanyam

New F"n"O Call

2009-09-01T19:42:00.000+05:30

Short Tata Tea near month futures, previous close 937.00, Target1 920.00, Target2 847.00 Target3 820.00 Stop loss 948.00 rs
Regards
Subrahmanyam

Days best 2-1-09

2009-09-01T19:41:00.001+05:30

Selling opportunities are likely to exist in BEL near month futures, previous close 1388.40 market lot 276
Regards
Subrahmanyam

Delivery based call followup

2009-09-01T19:40:00.000+05:30

Hind Petro completed target 1
Subrahmanyam

days best 01-01-09 followup

2009-09-01T15:59:00.000+05:30

RECL Ltd closed in negative, 6.55 rs less than previous close or 2.98% less call failed loss Rs 12772.50. Ge shipping near month closed less than previous close by Rs 14.70 or 5.16% profit 17640.00 Rs, call success.
Regards
Subrahmanyam
1-1-09 4.02 Pm

New delivery based call

2009-08-31T21:22:00.001+05:30

Hindustan Petrolium corporation, previous close 354.25, Probable targets, target one 367.00, target two 372.00 Target Three 374.00 Stop loss close below 344.25
Regards
Subrahmanyam
31-8-09

Day's Best for 1-09-09

2009-08-31T21:18:00.000+05:30

Buying oportunities are likely to exist in RECLTD near month futures, prev close 220.10 market lot 1950.
Selling oportunities are likely to exist in GE Ship Near month futures, Prev close 284.70, market lot 1200.

Regards
Subrahmanyam

Day's best 31-8-09 follow up

2009-08-31T18:48:00.001+05:30

Ultracemco near month futures closed up by 0.03 % at 762.50 Market lot 400. Profit Rs 100/- (close on close basis), Cairn Near Month closed at 265.15 , Up by 1.63 % Market lot 1250/- Profit 5312.50 (close on close basis)
Regards
Subrahmanyam

Days best for 31-8-09

2009-08-30T16:28:00.001+05:30

Days best for 31-8-09 is likely to be buying into Ultacemco Near Month Futures prev close 762.25 and Cairn near month futures previous close 260.90.
Regards
Subrahmanyam

Chart of the day 26-8-09

2009-08-25T20:57:00.000+05:30

Day's Best for 26-8-09

2009-08-25T20:53:00.000+05:30

The day's best for trading day 26-8-09 appears to be trading in Ambuja Cement Near month Futures

Subrahmanyam

Days best 25-8-08 followup

2009-08-25T17:06:00.000+05:30

Larsen and Toubro near month closed up by rs 17.75 ps or 1.14% market lot 200 profit 3550.00
RECLtd near month futures closed up by Rs 6.10 Ps or 2.98% market lot 1950 profit 11895.00
Subrahmanyam

CHART OF THE DAY 25-8-09

2009-08-24T20:43:00.000+05:30

Stcoks for accumulation

2009-08-24T20:37:00.000+05:30

Mahindra And Mahindra Appears to be good stock for accumulation whenever the scrip goes down. The probable targets are 857.00 and 933.00

Days best for 25-8-09

2009-08-24T20:35:00.000+05:30

The stocks for 25-8-09 appear to be trading in L&T Near Month and REC Ltd Near Month

Days Best

2009-08-23T12:50:00.000+05:30

The days best for 24-8-09 appears to be trading in Bajaj Hind Near Month Futures and Balarampur Chini Near Month

HELLO ALL

2009-08-22T15:45:00.000+05:30

Good morning. Starting this week I would like to share my ideas on indian stocks based on technical analysis with you. I would like to share my ideas and my picks. I propse to publish here my picks based on technical analysis and whenever possible to put writeups n technical analysis here. Hope you will also like them. Let Us meet again after some time.
Bye and regards
Subrahmanyam