Market out look 4-1-10 to 8-1-10

OM NAMO BHAGAVTHE SREE RAMAKRISHNAYA


MARKET OUT LOOK 04-01-2010

Nifty closed at 5210.05 on 24th December 2009, the last trading day of the previous trading week, there by gaining 22.65 points or 0.44% over previous week close. Let us watch the nifty movement

date open high low close

12/24/2009 5144.80 5197.90 5129.05 5178.40

12/29/2009 5180.75 5214.60 5175.85 5187.95

12/30/2009 5188.75 5197.05 5160.10 5169.45 close %

12/31/2009 5171.20 5221.85 5168.75 5201.05 22.65 0.44



In my previous week write up I opined that “Based on the above I am of the opinion that Nifty is likely to see some correction in days to come.”

Nifty posted gains on first trading day, lost ground on second trading day and posted gains on last trading day, there by posted gains week on week basis. My assumption was proved wrong and Nifty did not undergo correction as expected by me.

Let us examine the Nifty chart to make an assessment of what is likely to be the next week action.



The Nifty touched the upper band of Bolinger and started the downward journey on 30-12-2009. The chande momentum oscillator is sloping down but did not cross it’s 9 days moving average. Nifty also touched the upper band of projection band, and started the downward journey to lower band. R squared is turning up from lower levels and the present reading is 0.15 well below the critical value showing that the present uptrend is not statistically siginificant.

Based on the above I am of the opinion that the correction phase of the Nifty is not yet over and the probable targets are likely to be 4963 being bolinger lower band reading as of now, 4985 being projection band lower band reading as of now.

Regards

Subrahmanyam

Market Out Look 26-12-09

OM NAME BHAGAVATHE SREE RAMAKRISHNAYA


MARKET OUT LOOK ( NIFTY 28-12-09 TO 1-1-10)

The nifty ended at 5129.05 on 24th December 2009 for the trading week. The gains posted by Nifty were 190.70 points or 3.82% over previous trading week. In my last week write up I opined that “Based on the above I am of the opinion that Nifty is likely to find support around 4968-4954 and after under going some relief rally the down ward journey again is likely to continue in days to come”

Let us examine the movement of Nifty

Date Open High Low Close

12/18/2009 5042.00 5043.40 4979.05 4987.70

12/21/2009 4983.65 4997.85 4943.95 4952.60

12/22/2009 4953.35 4997.30 4953.35 4985.85

12/23/2009 4990.05 5150.60 4990.05 5144.60 Change %

12/24/2009 5144.80 5197.90 5129.05 5178.40 190.70 3.82



Nifty touched a low of 4943.95 on 21-12-09 and later bounced back to 5197.90 on 24-12-09. In the chart I have sent (hope at least some of you have opened and seen it) I mentioned targets of 5089.00 and 5191.51 both of which were met. Now the first part of the opinion has materialized. Now let us examine with the help of technical analysis, what will be the likely behavior of Nifty in days to come.

Let us examine the Nifty chart (chart 1)



Nifty on the opening day of trading week opened low and closed low. Last three trading days, Nifty traded higher and closed in positive territory and posted smart gains. The range on last trading was narrow.

The move started at the lower Bolinger Band reached the upper band, as is evident from the chart(1), and Chande Momentum index crossed it’s 9 day’s moving average from below and trading above it.

Let us examine the Nifty chart with R-squared(chart2). The Nifty touched the upper band of projection bands and Rsquared is falling down. The present value of Rsquared is .05 and critical value is 0.27,which shows that the uptrend is not strong enough.

The Chande momentum oscillator turned up without reaching the over sold area.



Let us examine the Nifty Envelops chart, the lower band of envelops is yet to be touched by Nifty.

Based on the above I am of the opinion that Nifty is likely to see some correction in days to come.

Regards

Subrahmanyam

Spot Nifty

Market Out Look 20-12-09

OM NAMO BHAGAVATHE SREE RAMAKRISHNAYA

The Nifty closed at 129.60 points down compared to previous week close. Let us examine the Nifty movement

Date Open High Low Close

12/11/2009 5136.05 5182.55 5088.40 5117.30

12/14/2009 5117.45 5156.70 5090.15 5105.70

12/15/2009 5105.75 5129.45 5018.25 5033.05

12/16/2009 5032.95 5067.25 5001.80 5042.05

12/17/2009 5046.65 5064.20 5013.15 5041.75 Change %

12/18/2009 5042.00 5043.40 4979.05 4987.70 -129.60 -2.53



Will the nifty continue the downward journey? Will it make a come back ? Let us examine with the help of Technical Analysis.

Nifty traded lower on first two trading days of the previous week. On the Third trading day it posted small gains of 9 points and again resumed the downward journey on Fourth and fifty trading days of the previous week. On the last trading day it swung low and closed near the low of day. Nifty closed below the important support level of 5092.00 on 7th December 2009, there by gave indication about the forthcoming things. It again closed below that level again on 8th December 09 and on 15th December 09.


The Chande Momentum Oscillator almost touched the over bought area of 50 and started the downward journey from there and trading below the crucial 9 day moving average of indicator which is a bearish sign.

The Chande momentum is yet to reach the over sold area or cross it’s 9 days moving average. It failed to cross it’s moving average thrice during the period of its downward journey from over bought area.



The positive Vortex indicator is turning down and the negative vortex indicator is turning up, but yet to cross.

The Nifty is yet to touch the lower band of envelops, which is good over bought/ over sold oscillator, whose reading is at present at 4817.00.

Let us examine the Nifty chart with projection bands and R-squared

Nifty started it’s downward journey from projection bands and yet to touch the lower band. The present reading of lower band is at 4953.85. The R-squared is above it’s critical value of 0.27 ( 14 days) indicating the present trend is strong statistically.


The Nifty started the downward journey from upper band of Bolinger on 11th December 2009 and yet to touch the lower band whose value is placed at 4968.41 as of now. See the chart below.
Based on the above I am of the opinion that Nifty is likely to find support around 4968-4954 and after under going some relief rally the down ward journey again is likely to continue in days to come


Regards

Subrahmanyam

Nifty Intra day chart 17-12-09

Nifty Intra day chart 19-11-09